With the crucial Bihar Assembly elections approaching, the contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) is shaping up to be exceptionally close. An internal survey commissioned by the NDA has revealed that the vote share difference between the two major alliances could be as little as one percent, leaving party leaders anxious about the final outcome.
NDA’s Slim Lead, Poll Predicts 130 Seats
According to the survey cited by Hindustan Times, the NDA may hold a slim lead in the race, projected to win around 130 seats in the 243-member assembly. The poll indicates 65% support for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party is set to secure nearly 9% of the vote share, emerging as a significant third force.
Congress Poll Echoes NDA Findings
A field survey commissioned by Congress also reflects the waning anti-incumbency sentiment against Nitish Kumar. Despite targeted attacks from opposition leaders Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor on issues like corruption, unemployment, and health, only 31% of respondents rated Kumar’s tenure as disappointing.
Projected Seats and Vote Share
The NDA is predicted to secure 130 seats, with the Grand Alliance likely to win between 102 and 107. Other parties, including Jan Suraj, could pick up two or three seats. This mirrors the razor-thin margins observed in the 2020 election, where the NDA won 125 seats and the opposition 110—separated by just 0.03% in vote share.
Caveats: Survey Reliability and Social Complexity
Analysts caution that such internal polls generally favor the organizing party and may not accurately forecast the final results, especially in a socially and ethnically diverse state like Bihar. Political trends and campaign dynamics have historically led to surprises, making these numbers indicative rather than definitive.
Alliance Strategies and Campaign Messaging
JD(U)’s Neeraj Kumar claims development under Nitish Kumar will drive voter loyalty, contrasting Tejashwi Yadav’s promises of government jobs to every family with the government’s economic empowerment schemes for women. Congress ticket aspirant and former strategist Shashank Shekhar believes NDA’s current edge is real but expects Prashant Kishor’s influence to remain limited, alleging Kishor will field candidates primarily to divide opposition votes.
Conclusion: A Close Fight Expected
The Bihar Assembly Election 2025 is expected to be as exciting and unpredictable as the previous cycle. With margins thin and new players entering the fray, the fight between NDA and the Mahagathbandhan will likely go down to the wire—making every vote and every seat crucial in determining the future leadership of Bihar.